March 2010 ~ Forex Special

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

US import price index falls beyond forecasts

(Barcelona) - The US import price index fell by 0.3% in February, thereby slipping further than the forecasts of a 0.1% decline from January's 1.4% growth.

Year-over-year, the US import price index ticked down to 11.2% growth in February from January's 11.5% rate. The market had predicted a more modest easing to 11.3%.

The Import Price Index released by the US Department of Labor informs the changes in the price of imported products into the US.The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, redounding in a higher probability of a rate rise. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Import Price Index (MoM)

-0.3%

Actual

-0.1%

Consensus

1.3%

USD/CHF falls to 1.0570, fresh 5-week low

(Córdoba) – The Swiss Franc is rising against the Dollar erasing yesterday’s losses. USD/CHF fell to 1.0570 reaching the lowest price since February 3.

The pair is holding below 1.0600 and currently trades at 1.0583/86, 0.30% below today’s opening price.

To the upside resistance could be located at 1.0620 and above at 1.0640 (March 15 high). To the downside support levels lie at 1.0570 (intra-day low) and below at 1.0550.

The Euro trades at the same level it had at the beginning of the day against the Swiss Franc after falling sharply in the last two days. EUR/CHF is hovering around 1.4520, after finding support during the Asian session at 1.4500/05 (16-month low).

USD/CHF (Mar 16 at 12:55 GMT)

1.0586/91 (-0.29%)

H 1.0627 L 1.0569

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.0533	1.0559	1.0586	1.0598	1.0625	1.0651

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bearish	Neutral
Data updated on Mar 16 at 12:43 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View USD/CHF Technical Studies ]

Improved risk appetite hurts the Yen

(Barcelona) - The Japanese Yen has been the biggest loser of Tuesday's European session, with risk appetite improving and European markets going through gains, the Yen has lost most of the ground taken on Monday dropping considerably against Dollar Euro and Pound.

USD/JPY decline from 9108 high on Friday, has found support at 89.95 on early European session and the pair has soared since reaching session high at 90.70 eyeing resistance at 90.85.

GBP/JPY decline from 138.00 area on Monday found support at 135.15, ahead of European opening, and the pair bounced up to 137.40 high. while the EUR/JPY decline from 125.20 has been contained at 123.20, and the Euro has rallied on European trade, to reach 124.55 session high so far.

EUR/JPY (Mar 16 at 12:54 GMT)

124.16/20 (0.34%)

H 124.55 L 123.18

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
123.62	123.93	124.24	124.36	124.67	124.98

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bullish	Neutral
Data updated on Mar 16 at 12:43 (15-minute timeframe)

[ View EUR/JPY Technical Studies ]

Friday, March 12, 2010

EUR/USD Important resistance area at 1.3750/1.3875 - Commerzbank

(Barcelona) - Dollar strength seems to be losing steam and the Euro and other considered higher yielding currencies are drifting higher, with the common currency approaching important resistance at 1.3750/1.3875 area, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank.

The Euro trades now around 1.3700 and approaches 1.3750/1.3875, which, according to Jones, contains several resistance levels: "EUR/USD is slowly drifting higher. Overhead resistance remains prolific above the market at 1.3750-1.3875 – this contains a double Fibonacci retracement, the short term downtrend and pivot."

On the downside, bearish reaction below 1.3530 will cancel upside momentum, says Jones: "Near term risk is shifting to the topside and only a break below nearby support at 1.3530, will alleviate upside pressure for a slide to key support, which remains 1.3445/05 (recent low and medium term Fibonacci retracement)."