Friday, July 30, 2010

Forecast on Spot Gold (Spot Gold, NZDUSD, USDSGD)


Forex Special

Spot Gold

SPOT GOLD  closed @ 11685 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day's high. The High was 1.5 Dollars from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 0.5 Dollars from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1.   The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS  approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Limited Down while 11775 holds and Daily Trend is also Limited Down while 12085 holds, so expect the price to have a Minimum Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious.  The  Daily Trend was within the Prior Day's Range and the Bulls gained  mildly towards the Close . The  Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a  Limited Downside  Bias,11735-775 are the Critical  levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook .On  the 5 min is along the Horizontal Channel and the Patterns are suggesting a Choppy Session with a potential to Turn Up Soon. The Opening Price Principles are Mixed , so  Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.

BULLS:   11580   11450   11360       BEARS:   11715   11805   11865


Today's Strategies:  Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.  

             

NZDUSD

NZDUSD closed @ 7240 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 2.   The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Weak and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS  approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Limited Down while 7295 holds and Daily Trend is Limited Up while 7105 holds, so expect the price to have a Minimum Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious.  The  Daily Trend breached the Prior Day's  Low and the Bears gave up mildly towards the Close . The  Hourly Trend  has been in a Range Trading with a Limited Downside Bias, 7280-95 are the Critical  levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the Steep Down Channel and the Patterns are suggesting a Choppy Session until there is a Clear Break . The Opening Price Principles  suggests that NZD is Weak against most Crosses but should be Limited so Cautious approach is needed.

BULLS:   7190   7135   7085       BEARS:   7265   7325   7365


Today's Strategies:  Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.  

             

USDSGD

USDSGD closed @ 13635 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range.  The High was 30 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1.   The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Weak and the Price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS  approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Limited Down while 13725 holds and Daily Trend is also Limited Down while 13805 holds, so expect the price to have a Minimum Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious.  The Daily Trend was within  the  Prior  Day's Range but the Bears gained towards the Close . The  Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a Limited  Upside Bias, 13690-13725 are the Critical  levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the Horizontal Channel and the Patterns are suggesting a Choppy Session until there is a Clear Break. The Opening Price Principles  are Mixed , so  Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.

BULLS:   13590   13540   13480       BEARS:   13665   13705   13765

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Financial Trend Analysis Strategy: Short USD/JPY


Forex Special

The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days.
The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops.
Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the specific security. FTA can change the strategy from SHORT to LONG and vice versa regardless of the previous (day’s) strategy. That means that even though the original target in the “old” strategy has not been met FTA can close down a position and wait to re-enter, or reverse the strategy, if the signals have changed. FTA determine every strategy individually. For more explanation on the strategies please check out the Reading Guide on page two in the publication.
Kim Cramer Larsson presented a special webinar at FXstreet.com to explain how to read, understand and use this report.
fta image

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Asian markets drop on weak Japanese data; Yen favoured


Forex Special

Asian markets have gone through losses on Friday's session after a string of dull macroeconomic figures in Japan, which have outweighed strong corporate earnings. In Forex markets, the Yen strengthened further on risk aversion, while Euro and Pound traded in range.

Japanese Nikkei Index dropped 1.7% after the unexpected 1.5% decline on industrial production, and consumer prices, which dropped in June for the 16th consecutive month, dampened optimism triggered by strong corporate earnings figures released by Sony and Sony Corp. and Nissan Motor Co.

South Korean Kospi Indexx fell 0.8% and Australian S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.7%m, while Chinese Shangai Composite Index dropped 1.2%.

Yen rallies on as macroeconomic data disappoints

USD/JPY continued its journey south on Friday's Asian session, and retreat from 88.10 on Wednesday extended after the release of downbeat Japanese data, to key support area at 86.25/35 which is being tested ahead of the European session opening.

EUR/USD upleg from 1.2730 low last week extended somewhat higher on Thursday, and the pair broke above 1.30455 resistance which has turned into support as the pair consolidates at 11-week high below 1.3100.

GBP/USD rally from 1.5120 low last week extended yesterday to a fresh 5-month high at 1.5660, where the pair was capped and turned back to resume consolidation around 1.5600.

EUR/USD (Jul 30 at 09:20 GMT)

1.3033/37 (-0.34%)

H 1.3095 L 1.3026

S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.30181.30511.30831.31021.31351.3168
[?]Trend Index[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly BullishNeutral
Data updated on Jul 30 at 09:00 (15-minute timeframe)


[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ]

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EU Unemployment Rate unchanged at 10% in June


Forex Special

The unemployment rate in the European Union had no variations in June, after the Eurostat released a 10% jobless rate, identical to the previous reading in May.

Analysts had previously predicted no changes in the rate, confirming an extra-push is needed after the holiday period, as the European economy continues its goal on stimulating the labor market recovery.

Unemployment Rate

10%
Actual
10%
Consensus

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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

GBP still holding below this uptrend line we have been following


Forex Special

GBP/USD

GBP still holding below this uptrend line we have been following, and as you can see from the above chart, we are desperately overbought. 60min charts are neutral, but do feel that these med term oscillators cannot be ignored for much longer, and if today we cannot break and hold above this uptrend line then we should fall back.
Support is in the 1.5550/40 region, and a loss therefore of this region would keep the market underpinned, leaving 1.5480/70 then targeted. We would look for buyers to come back in at these lower levels. However if sellers are determined enough and break the 1.5470 support we should be able to see a move back to 1.5410 first. If this cannot hold we look for 1.5350 which is going to prove quite a solid support band.
Now the upside is a break of 1.5660. If this occurs then the market is going to shrug off overbought conditions and they will try then for 1.5725/40 which is going to offer good resistance.

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ForexLive Asian market wrap: RBNZ raises rates


Forex Special

The RBNZ raised interest rates by 25 bps to 3.00% but the subsequently slightly dovish statement saw the NZD fall immediately Japan's June retail sales +3.2% YoY Governor Schwarznegger declares a fiscal emergency in California Regional stockmarkets fall by less than 0.5% on average Apart from a few minor bursts of activity it has been a very quiet sesion here in Asia with most of the majors trading close to their NY closing levels. The NZD/USD fell from .7275 to .7210 immediately after the RBNZ announcement and statement and this dragged the AUD/USD lower also, towards its overnight low at .8910. AUD/NZD short-covering above 1.2350 helped the AUD recover and it closes the session slightly above its NY closing level. Ranges: AUD/USD .8908/65; AUD/JPY 77.70/78.20; AUD/NZD 1.2240/1.2385 EUR/USD has again been unable to move far away from its recent pivot at 1.3000. A brief flurry of EUR/JPY selling just after the Tokyo fix threatened to send the EUR/USD lower towards stops below 1.2950 but this also fizzled out. Ranges: EUR/USD 1.2981/1.3013; EUR/CHF 1.3725/44 USD/JPY has been trading with a slightly heavy tone after the news out of California left traders feeling both bearish USD and also slightly risk averse. Momentum was lacking however and well-noted corporate bids below 87.00 went un-tested. EUR/JPY also failed to break below the previous resistance-now-support around 113.25. Ranges: USD/JPY 87.13/51; EUR/JPY 113.20/75 EUR/GBP has had an extremely quiet 7 pip range meaning that the cable has simply followed the EUR/USD lead. Ranges: Cable 1.5585/1.5621, EUR/GBP .8326/33 Markets: Nikkei -0.5%, HK -0.25%, Sydney -0.25%, Kospi -0.15%. Gold $1165/oz. Oil $77/bbl.
Forex Live

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Asian shares tracking Wall Street lower


Forex Special - Equities over the Asian session are mostly lower Thursday, tracking losses on Wall Street due to soft economic fundamentals. Market sentiment plummeted over New York as durable goods and the Fed’s Beige Book release brought signs of a slow recovery, bringing recession fears back into focus and overshadowing any optimism in the corporate sector.

Currently the Japanese Nikkei is off by more than 50 points or 0.54%, while the Hang Seng is down 0.29%. The Shanghai Composite on the other hand is holding on to modest gains at 0.45% after bullish commentary out of China spreading the idea that any government tightening measures have hit their peak. 

The Japanese market is pressured lower today due to profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite, however is being supported from any drastic movement by recent strong earnings in the corporate sector. Moreover, stock prices for Sanyo have soared this morning after speculation spread that Panasonic Corp would be incorporating the subsidiary into a wholly-owned unit.

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The Asia/Pacific stock markets are down


Forex Special

The foreign currencies futures consolidated as usual in the Far East amid declining appetite for risk. Most of the European and commodity currencies had ended down, as I expected, while the yen closed up. The Asia/Pacific stock markets are down and the gold/oil spread up. 
I had been looking for a likely medium-term top to form in most by mid-Wednesday and this seems to be the case.  The short-term outlook is slightly bearish for most of the European and commodity currencies and bullish on the yen. The medium-term outlook is sideways for most of the foreign currencies futures. My model is short only on the yen and Swiss franc.
This analysis is based on my books, as follows:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007
“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004


Overnight:

  • Japan: Japan: Retail sales fell 0.4% percent in June following the 2.0% contraction in May. Retail sales climbed 3.2% on year following the 2.8% increase in May.   
  • Australia: HIA new home sales for June    

Chart 


Today’s economic calendar:

  • Germany: Unemployment rate for July
  • Eurozone: Consumer confidence/economic confidence/industrial confidence/services confidence for July. 
  • UK: Mortgage approvals for June  

EUR- March

Luca Model: Long since July 22
Chart  
The September euro was quiet in Asia after closing flat in an inside range. The euro probably put in a medium-term top already. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 100-day moving average supports at 1.2911. Below 1.2879, the next floors are 1.2846 and 1.2812.   
The top of the trend is 1.3046. The next cap is 1.3108. Distant resistance is perched at 1.3275.

INDICATORS 
  
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish

JPY - March

Luca Model: Short since July 20
Chart   

The September Japanese yen remained firm in the Far East after closing up on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is short. 

Immediate resistance is at 115.08. Above 115.46, the high of the uptrend is 116.00. 
The 21-day moving average supports at 113.91.  Further support is at 113.11 and 112.72.

INDICATORS
  
Fast stochastics: Bearish (Bearish divergence; oversold)
MACD: Bearish (Bearish divergence)
Ichimoku: Sideways     


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways      
LONG-TERM: Sideways

GBP - March

Luca Model: Long since July 23
Chart 

The September pound made no progress after marking a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. The short-term is sideways for half a day and then slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long. 

The uptrend high is 1.5635. Further resistance follows at 1.5645 and 1.5766.
Immediate support is at 1.5520. The next floors are 1.5445 and 1.5396. 

INDICATORS 
  
Fast stochastics: Bullish (overbought) 
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways for half a day, then slightly bearish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish 
LONG-TERM: Bearish

CHF - March

Luca Model: Short since July 23
Chart 

The September Swiss franc consolidated in the Far East after closing up the day before. Yet, a medium-term peak is probably already in place. Only a convincing break below the 21-day moving average will confirm a bearish medium-term outlook. As of now, we only have a yoyo pattern for five days. The short-term outlook is sideways for half a day and then slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish but my model is short.

Initial resistance is at .9480. The next resistance levels are .9537 and .9595. The top of the uptrend is .9629. 
Immediate support is at .9425 from the 21-day moving average. The next floors are .9386 and .9311. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bearish (oversold)
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways for half a day, then slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

CAD – March

Luca Model: Long since July 22
Chart 

The September Canadian dollar marked time overnight after falling on Wednesday. It remains in a symmetrical triangle. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long. 

The 55-day moving average supports at .9617 and the 21-day moving average at .9600. Further support is at .9550.  

Immediate resistance is at .9660. Above .9729, further resistance is at .9784. A pivot high is at .9857. 

INDICATORS
  
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish

AUD – March

Luca Model: Long since July 20
Chart 

The overbought September Australian dollar remained soft in Asia after falling since Tuesday. The short-term outlook is bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long. 

Immediate support is at .8851. The next floors are .8797 and .8650. 
Initial resistance is at .8954. Above .8992, key resistance area is at .9030-45. 

INDICATORS 
   
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish


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