Thursday, July 22, 2010

Currency Majors Technical Perspective

Forex Special 

EURUSD Current Price: 12878


Morning. Showing the daily chart this morning. We can see a Head and Shoulders formation with a diagonal neckline. If that formation is to be believed then the target would have been 13040, our high. We also have a wedge formation that has a bias to break to the downside. We have strong support at 12755 but a daily close below here could see the pair down to 12250 quickly. I think that the stress test results tomorrow morning (at 6.00am) could be the trigger. 

Purchasing Managers Index at 9.00am UK

Support levels: 12755 12635 12245

Resistance levels: 12890 13005 13315

GBPUSD Current Price: 15191


Showing the daily chart this morning. We could have hit the top of wave A with the start of wave B lower underway. We would need to see a break of 15135 to confirm this. The 15195 support line has held well for the last two days. If the pair can manage a rally above 15295 then we could still see a higher high to finish the formation but either way we are very close to the top (or have already topped out)

Retail sales at 9.30 UK

Support levels: 15195 15135 15013

Resistance levels: 15195 15388 15634

USDJPY Current Price: 8652


Still pushing lower on USDJPY. Daily chart and we have no support line until 8510. 1hr we need to ask whether the last move up was the completed ABC, or just A in a larger ABC sequence. The bias is strongly lower with and we seem to be pausing at 161.8%. A push through here and 8627 last support need to be broken to take the pair down to 8575

Support levels: 8645 8627 8575

Resistance levels: 8673 8688 8700

AUDUSD Current Price: 8766


AUDUSD we can see a large ascending triangle formation (a) with a smaller triangle inside(b). These both give a bias for a break to the upside. We are just on the trend line support at the moment (8736)> if she can break through 8780 then we could see the highs again and a break. With the uncertain outlook on the other USD pairs we could see a break lower. If that is the case then I would look to the lower trend line around the 8500 area as a target

Support levels: 8736 8677 8594

Resistance levels: 8781 8827 8856


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