Saturday, August 28, 2010

Trading Forex Systems


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Worries are Intensifying


Market Movers Ahead

  • Market focus is likely to remain on the US economy in the coming week. The minutes of the most recent FOMC policy meeting could reveal important information about the Federal Reserve’s decision to reinvest the proceeds of its MBS portfolio in Treasuries. There have been rumours that several FOMC members were in doubt about the decision. In addition, the ISM will give us an update on the pace of the slowdown in the US manufacturing industry. We expect the ISM to decline to 53.6 in August. The August employment report will finish off a hectic week on Friday. Early labour market indicators are pointing towards a weak report, with private employment set to grow a meagre 20,000. 
  • In Europe, the key event of the week will be the ECB Governing Council meeting on Thursday. While policy rates are likely to remain unchanged, a key question is whether the ECB has become more worried about the effect of the increasingly disappointing US indicators on the European growth outlook. Another important question that might be addressed at the policy meeting is whether the ECB will extend the full liquidity allotment - we believe this is likely. In Sweden, we expect the Riksbank to hike policy rates by 25bp to 0.75%.

Global Update

  • The flow of weak economic indicators out of the US continued in the past week. Home sales have plummeted following the expiry of the tax credit for homebuyers. This has raised concerns about the strength of the underlying trend in home sales. Also, durable goods orders have called the strength of business investment into doubt. However, the reduction of weekly jobless claims was a positive, with initial jobless claims retreating to 473,000. 
  • The weakness in US indicators is likely to feed through to the European economy. In fact, new export orders in Europe’s manufacturing PMI weakened. The European economy, led by Germany, should nonetheless be able to continue delivering abovetrend growth in Q3. However, although it has remained strong so far, Germany’s Ifo manufacturing activity index is also pointing towards slowing growth. 

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US GDP second estimate revised down, but upward of forecast


The Bureau for Economic Analysis released today the second estimate for Q2 GDP at 1.6% growth, a heavy foot on the breaks from the first quarter's 3.7%. However, the revision was expected to land at 1.4% from the Q2 first estimate of 2.4%.

The release also includes the Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index showing that inflationary pressures remain low. The indicator stayed put at 0.1%, turning a blind eye on the 1.8% forecast. 

Real Personal consumption Expenditures QoQ rose from a revised 1.9% to 2.0% bypassing expectations of a drop to 1.7%.

Gross Domestic Product Annualized

1.6%
Actual
1.4%
Consensus

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Friday, August 27, 2010

Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Extends Rebound after Better than Expected GDP Revision


USD/JPY extends this week's rebound after better than expected Q2 GDP revision from US. GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 1.6% annualized, above consensus of 1.4%. GDP price index was revised up from 1.8% to 1.9%. USD/JPY jumps after the release and breaches 85 level. But no follow through buying is seen in dollar against other currencies yet, not is there follow through selling of yen. Markets are still cautious ahead of Bernanke's speech later in the US morning.
There is more rhetoric from Japan today. Prime minister Naoto Kan said that government is ready to take bold action in the currency market as "volatile movements in the currency market have a negative impact on economic and financial stability." Kan is expected to meet Shirakawa after the BoJ governor returns from US next week and before next BoJ meeting on Sept 6.
Other data released today saw UK Q2 GDP growth revised up from 1.1% qoq to 1.2%, from 1.6% yoy to 1.7% yoy. Swiss KOF leading indicators dropped slightly to 2.18 in August. Japan remained in deflation for the 17th month with national core CPI dropped -1.1% yoy in July. Unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.2% in July though.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 84.23; (P) 84.55; (R1) 84.78; More.
USD/JPY's rebound form 83.61 rebounds further and touches 4 hours 55 EMA as expected. Further rise could still be seen. But after all, note that upside is expected to be limited below 86.36 resistance and bring another fall. Below 84.27 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 83.61 will confirm down trend resumption for next key level at 80 psychological support. However, note that decisive break of 86.36 resistance will argue that USD/JPY has formed a short term bottom at least and bring stronger rise towards 88.11 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2007 high of 124.13 is still in progress and has resumed by the strong break of 84.81 low. Current decline is expected to continue towards 79.75 (1995 low) next. On the upside, break of 94.97 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Economic Indicators Update

GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug-1.10%-1.20%-1.30%
23:30JPYNational CPI Core Y/Y Jul-1.10%-1.10%-1.00%
23:30JPYUnemployment Rate Jul5.20%5.30%5.30%
23:30JPYHousehold Spending Y/Y Jul1.10%1.60%0.50%
08:30GBPGDP Q/Q Q2 P1.20%1.10%1.10%
08:30GBPGDP Y/Y Q2 P1.70%1.60%1.60%
08:30GBPIndex of Services 3M/3M Jun0.70%0.70%0.80%1.00%
09:30CHFKOF Leading Indicator Aug2.182.252.232.22
12:30USDGDP (Annualized) Q2 P1.60%1.40%2.40%
12:30USDGDP Price Index Q2 P1.90%1.80%1.80%
13:55USDU. of Michigan Confidence Aug F7069.6
14:00USDFed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks----
--EURGerman CPI M/M Aug P0.20%0.30%
--EURGerman CPI Y/Y Aug P1.10%1.20%

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Croatia: 2Q GDP contracted by 2.5% y/y


According to the first flash estimate, GDP in 2Q repeated the 1Q performance, posting a 2.5% contraction. The figure came in somewhat below our forecast and the market consensus (ESBe: 2.2% y/y; market 2.3% y/y), showing the ongoing fragile economic development. The detailed breakdown should be revealed as the end of September. We expect the GDP performance to have remained subject to a strong negative impact from contracting investment activity, which likely remained in double-digit negative territory. Private consumption could also remain a  burdening factor, still likely showing some stabilization with respect to 1Q (-4.1% y/y). Trade balance  statistics, on the other hand, suggest a continuation of the strong net export offsetting effect.

For 3Q, we anticipate stabilization, due to encouraging preliminary tourist season figures (7% y/y more overnight stays in July) and additional stabilization of private consumption. Merchandise trade should also remain supportive, though likely to a lesser extent than in the robust 2Q. Overall, our FY10 GDP forecast remains in the 1.5% region.

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Euro-shares stay low after UK GDP


European stocks resumed its downtrend in early trade, ahead of a key speech from Fed's Chairman Mr. Bernanke and US growth data. Stocks alos struggled in Asia, extending its week of losses as lingering worries over the state of the global recovery continues to wreak havoc sentiment.

On the currency market domain, a rising yen, considered a safe asset class when uncertainty knocks on the door, is at 15-yr low, helping little to keep equities afloat. The risk-off scenario, intensified over the course of this week, may get even bleaker should the upcoming US GDP fail to deliver a "doubtful" promising result.

In Britain, GDP preliminary reading for the second quarter reached 1.2%, improving slightly from a 1.1% expected. The FTSE-100 was off 0.40%, not much changed from before the report. CAC-40 declined 0.70% while the DAX was 0.32%. Energy companies were hit by falling oil prices, while no further relevant news were made public on M&A activity.

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

Gold higher on worsening US outlook


Forex Special



Headlines

  • Gold higher on worsening US outlook
  • US DOE reports reports fall in domestic demand for petroleum
  • Base metals lower on terrific new home sales

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Recent Recommended Trades


Forex Special 


*********************
Update Time: 26 Aug 2010 09:08GMT 
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.0280+

Despite intra-day rebound fm 1.0281 to 1.0319,
current retreat on renewed cross buying in chf sug-
gests recovery fm y'day's low of 1.0247 has possi-
bly ended there n consolidation with downside bias 
wud be seen for weakness to 1.0280/81.

Trade fm short side n exit on decline. A firm
rise abv 1.0338 may risk stronger gain twd 1.0373.

   Rate: +1.0280+ 
   Strategy: +Target met+ 
   Position: Short at 1.0315 
   Objective: 1.0280 
   Stop-Loss:  
   Resistance: 1.0319/1.0338/1.0373 
   Support: 1.0268/1.0247/1.0220 
******************
Update Time: 26 Aug 2010 07:03GMT 
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.2730+

Lack of strg follow through buying abv 1.2727/
30 n present retreat fm 1.2738 suggest risk is seen
for a pullback to 1.2690/95 b4 prospect of a resump
tion of erratic upmove fm 1.2588 to 1.2745/50, how-
ever, reckon 1.2772 (prev. sup) shud cap upside.

Wud be prudent to exit long n look to buy again
on dips as only below 1.2678 wud signal top made.

   Rate: +1.2730+ 
   Strategy: +Target met+ 
   Position: +Long at 1.2695+ 
   Objective: 1.2730 
   Stop-Loss:  
   Resistance: 1.2738/1.2772/1.2833 
   Support: 1.2678/1.2650/1.2608 
*********************
Update Time: 26 Aug 2010 06:06GMT 
INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.8885+

Aud's breach of 0.8867 (AUS) indicates the rise
fm y'day's low at 0.8770 to retrace recent decline
remains in progress n upside bias is seen for fur-
ther gain twd 0.8895, however, sharp move beyond
there is prevented due to nr term o/bot condition.

Hold long with stop as suggested n only below 
0.8830/32 signals intra-day top is made, 0.8805/10.

   Rate: +0.8885+ 
   Strategy: +Target met+ 
   Position: Long at 0.8850 
   Objective: 0.8885 
   Stop-Loss:  
   Resistance: 0.8895/0.8925/0.8946 
   Support: 0.8830/0.8796/0.8770 
 *********************

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EU's M3 Money Supply virtually unchanged in July


Forex Special 



The European Central Bank's calculation of euros in circulation, in practically all of its forms, was released today. The comparison with the previous quarter yielded an increase from 0.0% to 0.1%, falling short of the 0.2% forecast. 


The comparison with last year's M3 was completely still from the previous one. 0.2% for both. It did, however, miss the targeted forecast of 0.4%.


M3 Money Supply (QoQ)

0.1%
Actual
0.2%
Consensus

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

GBP/USD aiming for a correction


Forex Special 
(Buenos Aires) – GBP/USD Current price: 1.5412. Pound also cede today on risk aversion, reaching 1.5370 fresh 5-week low before halting the slump; entering Asia close to that level, hourly indicators have a slightly bullish tone yet still lacking strength: pair needs at least to accelerate or confirm above 1.5440 area, to extend the upside correction.

“Bigger time frames hold a bearish tone, suggesting the upside will likely remain limited till European opening,” said Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at FXstreet.com.

Support levels: 1.5410 1.5370 1.5330. Resistance levels: 1.5440 1.5490 1.5520.

EUR/USD (Aug 25 at 07:04 GMT)

1.2655/60 (0.23%)

H 1.2669 L 1.2617

S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.25821.26131.26451.26531.26851.2716
[?]Trend Index[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly BearishNeutral
Data updated on Aug 25 at 07:00 (15-minute timeframe)


[ View EUR/USD Technical Studies ]

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