Economic data portends housing double−dip in Australia

Forex Special 

Asian Market Update: Economic data portends housing double-dip in Australia, Japan; Miners may receive super-profits tax compromise offer

As of 12amET: 

Nikkei225 -1.7%; earlier, falling over 2% to 2010 lows 

S&P/ASX -1.4% 

Kospi -1.0% 

Taiex -1.4% 

Shanghai Composite -1.7%; fell to 14-month low below 2,400 

US S&P Futures +0.4%; late-session strength 

Spot Gold testing $1,242/oz; range-bound $1,240-44 

Crude $75.90/brl; Backing away from 2-week lows 

Economic Data

- (UK) UK JUN GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: -19 V -20E (6-month low)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: -6.4% V 6.2% PRIOR (biggest decline since Jul 2008) 

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN DEWR SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: -0.3% V 0.0% PRIOR (first decline since Jun 2009) - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.4%E (10-month high) 

- (SI) SINGAPORE MAY M1 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 22.3% V 17.3% PRIOR; M2 Y/Y: 9.0% V 9.0% PRIOR 

- (JP) JAPAN JUN NOMURA/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.9 V 54.7 PRIOR (first decline in 3 months) 

- (JP) JAPAN MAY LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.8%E (3-month low) 

- (JP) JAPAN MAY HOUSING STARTS Y/Y: -4.6% V +5.0%E (3-month low); ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 737K V 810KE; CONSTRUCTION ORDERS Y/Y: +9.2% V -25.0% PRIOR; (double-dip in Japan housing - Decline follows single month of increase in April - first since Oct 2008)

- (KS) SOUTH KOREA MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.6% V 0.6%E (3-month high); Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.8%E 

- (KS) SOUTH KOREA MAY LEADING INDEX Y/Y: 8.0% V 8.6% PRIOR 

- (KS) SOUTH KOREA JUL BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 104 V 104 PRIOR; NON-MANUF: 87 V 90 PRIOR (5-month low)

Top Headlines

- Australian govt endorses a compromise plan on mining tax and has presented its proposal to the industry - Australian Financial Review; Separate report in The Australian stating FMG.AU CEO Forrest has held talks with former PM Rudd about modifying resource tax provision, pushed for thethreshold to rise to as much as 15%, and would like to see the new cabinet improve on some of the aspects of proposal 

- Australia PM Gillard response: Constructive talks with mining industry continue 

- RBNZ Gov Bollard: To continue unwinding stimulus policy; Price stability remains central bank's objective

Forex

- PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.7909 v 6.7977 prior close (second consecutive weaker yuan setting) 

- RBA injects A$1.7B into money markets v A$132M system deficit (money markets in disarray, even outside Europe) 

- According to an Ipsos survey, about 51% of German voters would prefer to return to the deutschmark - press 

Financials

- NBG: Rejects press speculation of talks with Qatar Investment Authority; not seeking to raise capital 

- AXA.AU: NAB may require second extension from Australia regulators for purchase of Axa Asia unit 

- Shinsei Bank: To provide around ¥20B over the next three years for a new unit specializing in small-business turnaround lending - Japanese press 

Energy 

- API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -3.4M V -1ME (bullish); GASOLINE: -910K V -500KE 

- APC: Company may have been aware of key operational decisions at the exploded Macondo well - FT 

- China National Energy Administration: Should promote M&A in coal industry 

- Santos: Australian press sees continued interest in the company assets by China's Sinopec - Mitsubishi Corp enters natural gas project in Iraq with Royal Dutch Shell; total investment expected at ¥1T -Japanese Press

Healthcare

- Takeda: To forego share buybacks this FY for second consecutive year; Use cash for R&D - Japanese press 

Industrials/Materials

- 1618.HK - Metallurgical Corporation of China: 2010 sales growth rate to exceed that of 2009

- 028050.KS - Samsung Engineering: Wins a $930M order from UAE's Abu Dhabi Polymer Company 

- Toyota: House committee asks for more documents from Toyota on break override system 

Technology

- Chi Mei Optoelectronics: Capex to rise to NT$100B (same as last year) 

- Panasonic: Plans to increase electronic component sales to ¥470B in FY12 up 28% from FY09 -Japanese press 

- Konica Minolta: May post Q1 Op profit ¥11B v loss ¥0.5B y/y 

Speakers/Geopolitical

- China Premier Wen: China needs continuity and stability in economic policies; Need to continue to manage inflation expectations, keep policy flexibility 

- South Korea Fin Ministry: Economy to continue recovery on strong external demand, improving employment 

- Taiwan may sign a free trade agreement with at least one other Southeast Asia nation (after signing cross-straits agreement with China overnight) 

- Australian press speculating on Aug 28th or Oct 10th as the likely dates for national elections

Today's Trading Signals

Forex Special The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days.

The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops.

Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the specific security. FTA can change the strategy from SHORT to LONG and vice versa regardless of the previous (day’s) strategy. That means that even though the original target in the “old” strategy has not been met FTA can close down a position and wait to re-enter, or reverse the strategy, if the signals have changed. FTA determine every strategy individually. For more explanation on the strategies please check out the Reading Guide on page two in the publication.

Watch the Financial Trend Analysis Annual Performance of 2007, 2008, 2009 and May update of 2010

Webinar Recording: Todays' Trading Signals Report Explained

Kim Cramer Larsson presented a special webinar at FXstreet.com to explain how to read, understand and use this report.

• Download Full Today's Trading Signals Report

Published on  Wed, Jun 30 2010, 08:00 GMT

Download and read the brand new report published by Kim Cramer and Klaus Ikast. The two former analysts from Danske Bank have created their own financial company featuring exclusively and for the first time at FXstreet.com their trading signals for the day.

The Technical Trading Points you used to enjoy in a new format and on a daily basis only at FXstreet.com. Today's Trading Signals updates you on the latest technical analysis for the financial markets including bonds, currencies, equities and commodities. It covers intraday trading points (support and resistance), market trends and trading strategies (entry levels, stops, and target levels).

This ideal analysis report is useful for active traders demanding a technical approach to the markets. Definitely a must-read for your intraday trading plan!

UK Nationwide Housing Prices (YoY) falls to 8.7% in June from 9.8%

Forex Special 

Nationwide Housing Prices S.A (MoM)

0.1%

Actual

0.3%

Consensus

0.5%

Previous

GBP/USD hits 3-day low, bounce off

Forex Special The pair descended past 1.5000 to hit a new fresh 3-day low at 1.4980. Despite having been well supported above 1.5020, new bearish pressure sent the Cable further down, breaking through the area over the past hour.

Prior to that, the pair opened at 1.5063 to initially see-saw through the Asian session. A rise in the downward tendencies intensity triggered the downhill move. At present, GBP/USD has been able to pare half its daily losses to currently trade at 1.5020. 

According to the Analyst Team at 4CAST: “On the upside, resistance is likely to be faced at R3: 1.515 * 6-May high, R2: 1.513 28-Jun high, R1: 1.5065 28-9-Jun high volume. On the downside, support may be taken at S1: 1.4935 * 21-Jun high, S2: 1.493 25-Jun high volume, S3: 1.4855 25-Jun spike low”.

• GBP/USD

GBP/USD (Jun 30 at 14:22 GMT)

1.4997/98 (-0.42%)

H 1.50755 L 1.49805

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.4917	1.4955	1.4992	1.5016	1.5054	1.5092

[?]Trend Index	[?]OB/OS Index
Slightly Bearish	Neutral
Data updated on Jun 30 at 12:18 (15-minute timeframe)

• 1D
• 1M
• 3M
• 1Y

Providing Better Proof For Forex Automated Products

Forex Special When you are thinking about buying a Forex robot or expert advisor, is there anything in particular that should draw your attention? Well, you must gain sufficient confidence that the product will be capable of producing consistent profits over the long haul. What is the best way to achieve this goal?

You can do so by carefully studying the proof items supplied by the sellers. Unfortunately, this information tends to be deeply immersed within all the drawling sales literature that normally accompanies these devices. Consequently, the data supplied is usually substandard at best and even heavily manipulated at worse.

If you realize that most automated devices have failed to produce any reliable income streams in the past, then you should hardly be surprised at this state of affairs. Is there a superior method of producing proof of performance that can be readily verified by potential buyers including novices?

The Forex robot industry would certainly upgrade its reputation if better methods were adopted. There is one method in which you could place your faith and trust, but it does have a couple of stipulations. The first one is that you must be a serious user of Forex automated solutions and not just someone seeking an immediate solution to all their financial woes. This is because Forex trading and its automation are complex tasks and you may still need to work at achieving the optimum answers.

You cannot expect to just switch on a Forex expert advisor, sit back and watch the money pour in. This is because there could be awkward system bugs and the like that have to be ironed out which may not be possible in the initial versions of the product. Basically, you will need to develop a good rapport with the supplier of these devices in order to resolve these issues.

Another stipulation is that the product must work or be very close to doing so. This means that a positive expectancy value can be produced from its test results that can be readily verified by third parties including you. Sellers have not done this in the past because they had no faith in their products. 

The preferred method of producing proof would be to display it using live testing. Any potential customer would then be able to witness trading events develop before their own eyes and in real-time. In addition, you would not have to rely on data that was produced historically and outside the range of your own experiences.

Developers could produce snapshots and test results on a regular basis using a blog site. Potential buyers would then have the ability to completely confirm the performance parameters of all automated solutions of interest independently.

There are already a number of third party web-sites that provide such a service and do so quite often for free. You can locate them by doing suitable internet searches, such as: ‘Live Trading Analysis of Forex Robots’, etc. If you undertake good quality research, then you can minimize your bad experiences.

Good Forex Education Can Provide a Shortcut To Success

Forex Special Is it a good idea to consider serious Forex training at the start of your trading career? A recent survey showed that most novices do not consider this action as important. This study highlighted the fact that only about 5% of traders plan to use demo trading for a period of two years or more before going live.

The other 95% was distributed between those who planned to live trade immediately up to those who intended to demo trade between one to two years. You should pay particular attention to the close correlation between the first statistic quoted and the 5% of traders who actually succeed at Forex.

Forex is a complex subject that can be extremely volatile. You will require significant amounts of skill to trade it profitably over any extended period of time. You will also require substantial powers of concentration so that you can make continuous high quality decisions on a regular basis. This is because you have to conduct each of your transactions with great care because of the amounts of your money that are consistently at risk.

In addition, Forex operates long trading hours and is active from 5:00 pm EST Sunday to 4:00 pm EST Friday. Consequently, you will enjoy many opportunities to realize profits, but must devise a way so that you can trade in a consistent and planned manner.

You cannot let yourself cave in to instinct trading or rushes of adrenaline because you have too much at stake. With so much at risk, you may well consider that your best option would be to seek professional training. If you can locate a first-class choice of education, then this action could save you time as well as heartache and grief over the long haul. Always keep in mind that Forex is a ruthless adversary and only the best survive for any length of time.

If you are just starting, then you have a lot to learn. For instance, you need to grasp all the intricacies of subjects such as technical and fundamental analysis, trading strategies, Forex jargon, money and risk management, etc. You also need to find methods that can enhance your mindset and improve your trading psychology.

If you can select a good teacher, then you should be able to develop a profound understanding for this type of trading. This will help you base your trading decisions on a foundation of quality knowledge and market conditions pertaining to any trading situation that you are studying.

If you can develop your skills to such a level, then you will be able to plan your new open positions based on a superior feel for Forex. In contrast, you could endure months of thrashing about aimlessly if you attempt to try to educate yourself alone.

In addition, you must keep your spirits and morale as high as possible during your first six to twelve months of trading. This can be a difficult feat to achieve if you are constantly suffering consecutive large losses. 

Bank of England Warns That Eurozone Crisis Could Hurt UK Banking

Forex Special We live in a highly interconnected world. This is particularly true within the financial section, so it should come as little surprise to learn that the Bank of England is concerned about risks to UK banking from the on-going Euro/sovereign debt crisis.

Whilst UK banks are not significantly and directly exposed in Greece or the other countries which are at the eye of the debt crisis storm, indirect exposure is, indeed, significant. UK banks act as “counterparts” to European mainland banks and so would be at risk of a “knock-on” effect should these banks collapse. Naturally, UK banks are not immune to market fears and jitters within the European financial sector may cause investors to avoid the entire region, including the UK. The uncertainty could lead to price depression for “risky” assets such as some corporate bonds. This may force UK banks to write-down the value of loans to such corporations, causing them to suffer heavy losses. Of course, all of this pessimism is purely speculative at the moment.

In a similar vein, the bank’s report also warned of potential risk to the sector stemming from the UK economy. They pointed to further potential pain within the UK housing sector if the UK economy is very weak and/or if an interest rate rise is needed. In this scenario, a large upsurge could be seen in Briton’s being unable to meet loan payments or being forced into default over their mortgages.

To put Greece’s problems into perspective in the larger scheme of things, it is interesting to note the Bank of England’s comments on the refinancing challenge that faces them as emergency government loans must be repaid and loans mature: "In the UK, the largest banks will need to refinance or replace around £750bn -£800bn... by the end of 2012." Unsurprisingly, the Bank of England stressed that a "credible plan" of refinancing was needed.

U.S. Dollar Falls to 8-week Low against Yen on Poor U.S. Treasury Yields

Forex Special 

Falling prices in Asian equity markets coupled with lower than 3% yields on U.S. Treasury products helped push the U.S. Dollar lower versus the Japanese Yen. The Shanghai Composite slipped 1.77% and other regional exchanges were also weakened. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note slipped to the lowest point in more than 14 months, selling at a yield of 2.994%. As reported at 2:50 p.m. (JST) in Tokyo, the U.S. Dollar dropped to an 8-week trough, trading against the Yen at 88.84 Yen, off from Monday’s 89.41 Yen traded late in New York. Traders also said that Japanese exporter selling for settlement of their accounts at the close of the month also weighed heavily against the U.S. currency.

This week, the focus will turn to key economic data from the United States; expectations are that the data will show weakening in the American economy. That news will help the safe-haven Japanese Yen appreciate even more against the U.S. Dollar. Should the U.S. indicators be as poor as expected, yields on U.S. Treasury products will continue to fall and put additional downward pressure on the U.S. currency against the Yen.

Today's Trading Signals

Forex Special The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days.

The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops.

Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the specific security. FTA can change the strategy from SHORT to LONG and vice versa regardless of the previous (day’s) strategy. That means that even though the original target in the “old” strategy has not been met FTA can close down a position and wait to re-enter, or reverse the strategy, if the signals have changed. FTA determine every strategy individually. For more explanation on the strategies please check out the Reading Guide on page two in the publication.

Watch the Financial Trend Analysis Annual Performance of 2007, 2008, 2009 and May update of 2010

Webinar Recording: Todays' Trading Signals Report Explained

Kim Cramer Larsson presented a special webinar at FXstreet.com to explain how to read, understand and use this report.

• Download Full Today's Trading Signals Report

Published on  Tue, Jun 29 2010, 07:05 GMT

Download and read the brand new report published by Kim Cramer and Klaus Ikast. The two former analysts from Danske Bank have created their own financial company featuring exclusively and for the first time at FXstreet.com their trading signals for the day.

The Technical Trading Points you used to enjoy in a new format and on a daily basis only at FXstreet.com. Today's Trading Signals updates you on the latest technical analysis for the financial markets including bonds, currencies, equities and commodities. It covers intraday trading points (support and resistance), market trends and trading strategies (entry levels, stops, and target levels).

This ideal analysis report is useful for active traders demanding a technical approach to the markets. Definitely a must-read for your intraday trading plan!