Saturday, June 19, 2010

EUR/USD: 1.2381 − Weak Downtrend

EURUSD: 1.2381
Short-Term Trend:  weak downtrend
Outlook: EURUSD initially met resistance at the 1.2347 Fibonacci level early last week but then on Thursday it moved firmly above that level. Thus, the very short-term view is now positive as long as the prices stay abv the 1.2347 level. With the prices well above the 21-day moving average, we can also say with confidence that some kind of a low (possibly a Short-Term low) has already been found. That means the single currency is likely to trade mostly higher for the next month or so, though a re-test on this year's low can't be ruled out yet. To maintain the immediate bullishness the market needs to stay abv the 1.2146 level. If that level holds on the 1st significant pullback, then we can expect a recovery twd at least the 1.2671 level.
On the downside, below 1.2146 negates, signals a re-test on this year's low is likely under way... 

Strategy: Holding long from 1.2250 is favorable. Stop=1.2100. Target=1.2650
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